“Perplexing” is one way to describe Tony Finau’s career to date. He’s gained a reputation for coming up short in important moments, but at the same time, he remains a major and a few more wins away from being … David Duval.
Finau just beat the hottest player in the world, Jon Rahm, in the Mexico Open, flipping last year’s result when Finau finished second to Rahm, whose victory at Vidanta kick-started an insane 12-month stretch.
Finau has been on a bit of a heater of his own, though. Sunday’s win marked the fourth in his last 19 starts worldwide, but it’s also worth nothing that he’s missed just one cut since last year’s U.S. Open. He also has 11 top-15 finishes in that timespan. Since July 1, 2022, the four best players in the world are Rahm, Finau, Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler in some order. They’re the top four in strokes gained with a combined 15 tournament wins between them.
If Finau was a star before based on his skillset and ceiling, he’s a borderline superstar now with a ton of room to grow.
How players put their careers together is fascinating. Jordan Spieth, for example, didn’t always look the part but knew how to win as soon as he got out on the PGA Tour. He took two majors at age 21 … but then regressed (who wouldn’t?) over the next 10 years. Finau is the opposite. He always looked the part, but it seemed sometimes that he didn’t know how to win. He rarely did so at the beginning of his career, but suddenly only Rahm, Scheffler and McIlroy have more victories over the last 24 months.
“I just think it just says that I learned a lot in those [early days of not winning],” said Finau, who won just once in his first 186 PGA Tour starts. “On Sunday, out here, I’ve learned that you just have to be aggressive, you have to make birdies. Guys are going to make birdies.
“So my mindset on Sundays I think has just changed. You never get comfortable with the lead. That’s my nature, anyway, is to be an aggressive player. I always have been that way, and so Sundays are starting to shape up better for me since I’ve been in contention. I think I just have learned a lot.”
Could Finau and Spieth end their careers with similar numbers and titles, even if one did it at the start and the other at the end? It’s definitely on the table; though, for the record, I think Spieth has a lot left in the tank and their careers won’t be all that close. Players like Spieth, McIlroy and Justin Thomas are the exceptions in this sport. Most careers — not just in golf — look more like Finau’s, even among the über-talented. You get into an industry, have a little bit of success, learn something, get a bit better and eventually stair-step your way to the top. Rare are the prodigies who take up most of the oxygen.
Speaking of stair-stepping your way to the top, Finau is now ranked No. 11 in the world, two spots off his high-water mark of No. 9 after last year’s Tour Championship. To bring this all the way back to Duval, who is probably a more attainable figure for Finau to catch than Spieth, can Finau be No. 1 someday? Can he put together a career that looks similar to a former No. 1 and Open champion? It’s going to be difficult with McIlroy, Rahm and Scheffler guarding the top, and Finau will have to break through at one of the major championships.
That part is a learning process, too, but it’s not going as well. After notching nine top 10s between 2018-21, Finau has none in his last seven major championship starts. That can change in hurry, of course. Patrick Reed won the 2018 Masters after not finishing in the top 10 in any previous major. Whether it changes for Finau will, fair or not, determine how we view his career.
Regardless, it’s clear that something has changed with Finau. Everything he stacked early in his career is paying dividends late.
In many ways, Finau is the tortoise, not the hare. He’s not Spieth or McIlroy or Thomas. But hares sometimes wear out, as the graph below depicts. Duval (the light blue line) won all 13 of his PGA Tour titles in fewer events than it took Finau to win his second. Will Finau catch him now, though? Can Finau put up seven more Tour wins and a major championship? It’s certainly feasible given the trajectory below, isn’t it?
It’s also a curiosity given how they both went about building their careers:
Data Golf
There’s a lesson hidden in Finau’s career trajectory: the importance of sustainability. He said it himself after winning the Rocket Mortgage last year.
“They say a winner is just a loser that just kept on trying, and that’s me to a T,” said Finau after winning his second tournament in a row. “How many times do I lose? But one thing I won’t do is give up, and I’m only here as a winner because I chose not to give up and just keep going.”